Every brainchild of human thought seems to be inevitably fraught with complications, especially when money is mixed in. It pains one to visualize the inner workings of something like the stock market, especially now that the world is besieged by global economic and financial recession. Many companies are struggling to be rid of the vise grip of the crisis that has already claimed many others, not just any companies, but known ones. With such influential organizations rising and falling, stock traders need all the help they can get trying to make sense of stock market figures that might some might even try their luck in automated trading via day trading software.

Putting a computer’s excellent data gathering and analysis skills to use, stock market software is one of the more useful things that had come out of the mesh of the World Wide Web that has today become commonplace. These software come in a variety of ranges: from observational systems designed to gather and organize data to analytic software that analyzes stock market information to actual AI traders that do the decision making as well. The data observation and gathering plus the analysis parts make such stock trading software virtual assistants to stock traders and are quite accurate and useful. But the decision making software is rather dubious.

While it is true that a computer program is the best suited to analyze such figures as stock market data, and also quite suited to perform according to a predefined set of principles like using technical or fundamental analysis, the stock market—like any other man-made and man-run complexity, can at times be drastically irrational. The 1987 stock market crash for example; until now, no probable cause has ever been proven to cause a drop of 22. 6% in the Dow Jones Index. None logical, at least. Even if today’s computers had been there, they could not have been able to foretell such an event happening. This is still the case today. No computer can accurately forecast an outlier possibility in a Normal distribution of trends and in so doing take advantage of it. Furthermore, the Efficient Market Hypothesis of Professor Eugene Fama effectively negates a computer’s potential to break the bank, or in this case, beat the market. Stating that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market from information from the market, though the hypothesis has its drawbacks and contenders, is sound enough to ring true for the case of a investment management software.

And of course, a computer can’t account for the psychological aspect of the stock market where overreaction or the opposite can result in over or under pricing. All in all, with regards to data, computers and programs are excellent observers and analysts, but all calls are still best left to Homo sapiens.

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I had just finished posting an article named A Black Swan Named Swine Flu when I came across an insightful article by James Howard Kunsler that adds his always interesting view on the swine flu issue.

As James Kunsler and I both point out no one at this stage knows how the Swine Flu outbreak will develop. It may turn out to be a fairly minor public health concern, especially in Mexico, and then fade away, or it may turn into a world wide pandemic with terrifying consequences for all. With any viral outbreak the potential is there for it to become as serious as the 1918 flu pandemic that killed somewhere between 30 million to 100 people. That was out of a world population that at the time was about 1.7 billion.

Of course, we now have medicines and medical facilities that were non existent in 1918. But we also have about 6.6.5 billion people on this planet, many of them living in densely packed urban centers, like Mexico City. A viral infection spreading among a densely packed population could grow at an alarming rate. Especially if the virus is a new strain, as the swine flu virus is, and there are no vaccines really for immediate use.

Another danger in our modern highly mobile world is that international travel is frequent and fast. Airlines can transport you to just about any other spot on the planet within 30 hours. Air travel is a vital part of the world’s transportation system and huge numbers of people are moved about every day. If there is one infected person on an airplane there is a good chance that at least a few fellow passengers will become ill shortly after completing the flight. 

About ten years ago I flew to the Philippines on vacation and became seriously ill about two days after checking into the hotel in Cebu. I recovered just in time to catch my return flight two weeks later. What a vacation that was. Almost all of it was spent in bed at the hotel wondering if I would survive. I’m sure that I was exposed to the flu on the aircraft during the 13 hour leg of the flight to Manila. If this swine flu thing becomes pandemic you do not want to fly anywhere. 

It is still too early to know how the swine flu is going to impact us and the world economy. Airline and travel related stocks, like hotels, are already taking a beating. If it becomes apparent that the swine flu will become widespread and is a deadly killer then the hope of an early recovery in the world economy and stock markets will be crushed.

Based upon research found so far on the Swine Flu outbreak since it is so late in the flu season it is likely the the outbreak will fizzle out as warmer wheather occurs and will then come back with a vengence in the fall and winter. This was the pattern of the 1918 pandemic and probably is the one that is most likely to occur this year. So the Swine Flu Black Swan may prove to be just as deceptive as the Bear Market. Just when once again you are feeling pretty good about the outlook it comes in for the kill.

Here are a few additional comments about the new Black Swan, A Black Swan Named Swine Flu

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Futures trading refer to the market in which an agreement is made to buy or sell a specific quantity of a specific product at a predetermined price in a set future date. A holder of a futures contract is placed under the obligation to make or take the delivery on the settlement date as specified in the contract. Instead of delivering the physical product, some futures contracts may also take cash settlement in its place. Most contracts ending before the delivery date are concluded in this manner. The option to buy or sell an opposing contract before the date of settlement may also be included in a futures contract. If you really want to make money you should be checking out FX online trading

Traditional commodities were the initial products covered by futures trading. These refer to agricultural commodities such grains, meat, and livestock. Dairy products and seafood were added later on. Markets that are beyond physical commodities such as energy commodities like oil, gasoline and natural gas have now been added as futures trading have expanded. Trading is also done with financial instruments like currency, equities, private interest rates, and government interest rates. You can also learn a lot by reading personal finance newsletter.

futures trading exchanges are done according to these commodities in the US. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and oats are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Gold, silver, and copper is being traded under the Commodity Exchange in New York. Other futures trading venues in New York are the New York Cotton Exchange, the New York Futures Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and the International Monetary Market are other exchanges operating in the country. Another way of making money is you can check out investing in gold.

Hedgers and speculators are the traditional groupings of futures trading participants. The producers or consumers of the commodities being traded are called the hedgers. Their participation in futures trading is done as a measure to reduce the risk of loss in their products due to price fluctuations. For example, farmers want the protection of a preset price in the event of a bad harvest or a surplus in their crops. This protection will make it easier for them to plan their costs. The other group of participants is called the speculators. Futures contracts are used so they can create profit from the price changes of the commodities. The profit they hope to gain will be determined by what they paid to buy a futures contract and what they will pay later on to offset it.

A regulated environment and strict rules govern futures trading. In the US, firms and individuals participating in futures trading should be registered with the Commodity Futures trading Commission (CFTC). This agency is tasked to ensure the integrity of the futures market in the United States by reviewing the terms and conditions of proposed futures contracts. The contracts terms should reflect standard trading practices and should not be prone to manipulation. The CFTC also conducts monitoring of the market, systems, internal controls, and compliance programs of the different exchanges. In the event of an emergency in futures trading, it has the power to order an exchange to take action.

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Many are promoting the methods of gaining wealth in real estate investing through buying and holding.  So, you’ll find yourself in a position, whether in your personal life or included in your business dealings, that you’ll want to sit on a particular property holding, one that is a wise investment with high profitability potential.  If this is your first time considering real estate investing, flipping a house is the perfect way to start.

Essentially, you can flip a house one of three ways, understanding that each has its own unique terms, property type and incentive.  One method of flipping properties is retailing.  Essentially this means buying a house badly in need of repairs, give it a face-lift inside and out, then flip it, i.e., sell it.  Many properties on the market today need TLC and there are various ways you can flip a house for profit quickly and efficiently.  Learn which techniques to utilize so that you get a big return in a short amount of time.

Wholesaling is yet another way to flip houses.  Wholesaling is a process that involves buying the house of your choice only to turn around and sell it to a real estate investor for a small, quick profit.  In order to successfully wholesale properties you’ll need to build a solid rapport with local real estate investors, have a good grasp of what properties flip quickly and where to buy them.  Wholesaling is the method of choice for those who live in larger cities since it makes flipping houses so much easier.

The final way to flip houses is to appoint the purchase.  When this method is used you are committing to purchasing the property.  Instead of taking on the headache of cinching the deal yourself, you give it over to a real estate investor, for a small fee, of course.  This is an easy scenario since the investor takes over the contract and closes the purchase for you, thereby flipping the house with minimal involvement from you.  You can reap huge profits by investing in just the right property.  Be sure that you have your attorney confirm that the contract is fully assignable.

If you are considering a truly profitable career in real estate, it will be in your best interest to become well versed in the art of flipping houses.  You can make a lot of hard cash flipping houses, especially after you’ve learned the fundamentals.  Although retailing and assigning the purchase tend to be the preferred way to flip properties, they both still require your hard work and effort.  Restoring homes is hard work, so you’ll want a capable crew to take on necessary repairs.  Assigning the purchase may seem daunting at first, but it will get easier as you gain experience.  If you stick with it and give it your level best to pull in profits - you’ll be skillful at flipping houses in a flash.

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